Sunday, December 23, 2012

Diamond Head Game 2: Miami

After a relatively easy free victory against the Buccaneers from East Tennessee, the Cats will have their hands full with Miami.  The Hurricanes come in with a #7 RPI and a seven game winning streak. After an inexplicable loss to Florida Gulf Coast on the road in mid-November, the Canes beat Michigan State at home on November 28th.  While Arizona is undoubtedly the favorite, this is unlikely to be an easy win.  The Hurricanes are big, experienced, and talented. 

The Cats have the advantage in most categories, but for the most part, those advantages are slight. Arizona shoots the ball better from two, three, and the free throw line.  We are also more efficient offensively.  Miami has had slightly better shooting defense, holding opponents to 38.2% compared to 38.6% for the Cats.  We give up fewer points per possession but more points per shot. Not surprisingly, we turn the ball over more, something which eventually is going to cost us a win.  Miami has slight advantages in terms of height and weight; they are also very experienced, starting four seniors and a junior.  This is the biggest team we have faced, but we have rebounded the ball better on both sides of the court.  We have an advantage of about 18 minutes from the bench, and our bench players contribute more points.


The simulation gives us a 59.5% chance of victory with a 2.7% chance of this one going into overtime.  The most likely score is a three to four point win with the Cats taking it 72-69.  The simulation gives us a 34% chance of winning by 10 or more, and a 13% chance of winning by more than 20.  A 10 point loss is more likely than a 20 point victory, coming in around 19%.   All signs point to a close game.


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