Saturday, December 22, 2012

Diamond Head Game 1: ETSU

There are no sure things in college hoops, but this is as close as it's going to get.  Playing on a neutral court on the island of Oahu, I'd give ETSU about 26:1 odds of getting a win. I don't mean to belittle the Buccaneers from Johnson City, Tennessee.  All Division I basketball teams have talent, but of course some have more than others.  Unfortunately for ETSU, they were matched up in their first round game with a team that has a ton of it.  At least they got a trip to Hawaii.

In every category but one, Arizona is better.  We hit 13% more of our two pointers and 10% more of our threes.  We are vastly more efficient offensively and even have the edge in all measures of defensive prowess.  We rebound the ball better, especially on the offensive end.  We are taller and heavier.  The Bucs do have depth.  They get about three more minutes from the bench than we do, but our bench contributes more points by a hair.  There is nothing to worry about here, except maybe jet lag, but that should be common to both teams.

I will keep simulating these games since the simulation seems to be doing a decent job of predicting outcomes.  To be honest, I have no idea if anyone reads this stuff or cares, but I enjoy doing it, so why not?  Out of 10,000 simulated games, ETSU won 379.  That equates to a 96.2% chance of victory for the Cats.  The most likely score is 77-53, or a 24 point margin.  The Cats should use this game to find their rhythm because the game that follows is likely to be a lot closer.

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