Monday, December 17, 2012

Golden Eagles, v.2

On the plus side for the Golden Eagles of Oral Roberts, they have a winning record of 5-4.  On the negative, they played UTEP in El Paso, and lost by 20.  That's the same Miners team that visited McKale and lost by 21.  The transitive property, however, does not describe college basketball very well, so we shouldn't make too much of that.

Coming off a big win and now a fresh Top 5 ranking, if you are a manic and half empty glass kind of college hoops fan like me, it's hard to shake that feeling in your gut that something bad is going to happen soon.  Not to worry, though, the chances of the Cats falling to the Eagles are pretty slim, certainly not impossible, but slim.

In most categories, Arizona has the advantage.  Across the board, we are offensively dominant.  We shoot it better from two, three, and the line, but the offensive efficiency numbers really tell the tale.  We have a major advantage in points per shot and possession.  On defense, it's a familiar pattern.  Our opponents make fewer of their shots and fewer points per possession.  ORU does have a slight advantage in terms of points per shot because teams continue to shoot the three well against us.  The Eagles are a tall team, about an inch shorter than us, and they have been terrific on the offensive glass, currently ranking 16th in the land.  Another big advantage for the Cats is depth.  Look for the Cats to pull away in the 2nd half.

So, as I did for the Florida game, I decided to simulate this one.   According to my simulation (keep in mind I have no idea if it's worth a damn), we have an 88% chance of winning this one with an average win of about 17 points.  The most likely score is 80-63.  That might bring some comfort, but keep in mind that the team from Tulsa would be predicted to win about 1 out of 10.  Here's the output:

On a side note, I wish I was going to Hawaii this weekend.  Everyone seems to be anticipating the game against San Diego State, but we shouldn't overlook a likely 2nd round game against the Miami Hurricanes.  They currently have a top 20 RPI, a KenPom rank of 30, and a 6-1 record.  They are also getting some votes in the AP poll.

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