Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Colorado

The Buffs started the season well with six straight wins, including a two point victory over the 16th ranked Baylor Bears.  It's not clear if that win was as significant as it seemed at the time because since then, Baylor has dropped three more, most troubling to College of Charleston.   The Buffs have fared better, but they lost two of three on the road.  They did not play well against the Wyoming Cowboys in Laramie, and they were trounced by the Jayhawks in Lawrence.


In spite of taking two of three against the Cats last year, it would be a major upset if the Buffs pulled off a W in Tucson on Thursday.   The Cats have been statistically better in almost every category.  Colorado only comes out ahead in three point shooting, defensive rebounding, and shooting defense, and except for rebounding, those advantages are negligible.  Even for our perceived Achilles heel, turnovers, we have been better.  We cough it up on 21% of our possessions, compared to 22% for the Buffs.

The simulation gives us a 76.3% chance of victory with an expected ten point margin of victory.  The most likely score is 74-64 with a 2% chance of overtime.  Thirteen consecutive wins would be a nice way to start the season, especially at the start of conference play.   Against the Utes on Saturday, a win is nearly assured, but the same cannot be said for tomorrow's contest. Still, I like our chances.


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