Wednesday, January 30, 2013


For seemingly the first time in five years, the Cats will go into Seattle the favorites, but that doesn't change the fact that I have been conditioned to approach this game with trepidation.  While we are favorites, we are not strong favorites.  There are few road games in the Pac that are a cake walk, and this not one of them.  I am sure the rowdy UW crowd is going to be amped, and Lorenzo Romar will have his team prepped.  I've seen enough of C. J. Wilcox, Scott Suggs, Aziz N'Diaye, and Desmond Simmons to know that this one is going to be a battle.  For a moment, let's forget past experience, though, and focus on the numbers.

Arizona has been been the better offensive team, in virtually all facets of the game.  The only factor in which the Huskies have been better is on the offensive glass.  I'm not sure how Romar gets his guys to crash the offensive boards the way they do, but this is a staple of the Washington offense.  Despite a slow start on the defensive end, Washington has turned things around, and the two teams are pretty much equivalent, except that we have played a much tougher schedule.  The Huskies have a slight advantage in height, but we are the deeper team.

The simulation says the Huskies are five point underdogs and gives us a 64.3% chance of winning.   Expect about 66 possessions and a final score of 71-66.  If things turn out that way, Sean Miller would pick up his first win at Alaska Airlines Arena, Hec Edmunson Pavilion, or whatever it's called.  As UCLA fell tonight, and at the time of writing, Oregon is well on their way to a loss, a win tomorrow night would be golden.

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