Saturday, January 26, 2013

University of Southern California

After the UCLA game, I thought it might be time to retire the game simulations, but I told the one to three people who read this that there were good reasons to distrust the numbers in that one.   The good news about this game is that all signs point to a comfortable victory.  On the bad side, we have struggled a bit against teams with "Southern" in the their names.  Here's the skinny.

We are a much stronger offensive team, so much so that if we can match the Trojans on defense, we would be expected to run away with this one.  For the season as a whole, the two teams have been pretty much equivalent in terms of defensive efficiency, but for the conference season, we have actually been better, despite serious slip ups against Oregon and UCLA.

The simulation gives us a comfortable 88% chance of victory with an average margin of victory of 16.5 points.  The most likely final score is 75-58.  I feel pretty confident that the Cats are going to bounce back after Thursday's loss.  I hope I'm right.

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