Monday, March 25, 2013

A Good Season

Four months ago, the Cats started the season 4-0.  Even at that time, it was clear that this season would be special.  I am proud to report that at the end of November, I wrote that the numbers suggested that Arizona was a "deep tourney run" kind of team.   I'm happy that things have panned out that way.  I started working on this project back in May.  For about three or four months, I was able to keep up with it.  Then, life got in the way.

Last week, I was in Shanghai.  On Friday morning (China time), I was in a meeting and peeking onto a Chinese colleague's iPad to get the score of the Belmont game.  On Saturday, I was driving home from the airport when the Harvard game ended.  I watched both on the DVR.   Does anyone else enjoy watching recorded games while knowing the outcome?  I find it to be so much more relaxing than live television.

Anyway, the way I see it is that no matter what happens from here on out, I can have a peaceful off season, knowing that the banners hanging above the hardwood at McKale will be augmented with this season's team.  Most likely, this run ends on Thursday, but who knows what will happen.  Maybe the Cats will still be playing next weekend.

I haven't had the time or energy to work on this project lately, and I don't know if I will again in the future.  I very much appreciate the few people who have read this and/or contacted and encouraged me.  This is a lot of work, but so are my job and other parts of my life.  I am not sure that I was providing much beyond what is already available out there, but I like to think I was.

I will end by noting that Ken Pomeroy gives us a 35% chance of beating the BuckeyesNate Silver is also pessimistic.   I respect the hell out of those guys because they are emotionless number crunchers who understand the magic of probabilities, but for once, I am going to ignore the numbers and say that we are going to kick their ass.  Go Cats!


  1. Thanks for all the effort. As a UofA bball junkie I have enjoyed having an intelligently written and statistically thoughtful website to read. All the best to you in the coming months.

    GO CATS!!

  2. Thanks for your efforts! I enjoyed your analysis. I'm curious how your game simulation for Ohio St would turn out esp. vs Nate Silver's and Ken's predictions. Don't neglect your life or day job for this!

  3. Ken, I know you too well. You had to muster some serious energy to write that.

    Thanks Tom and thanks for reading.

    And thank you, Joe. I might have time to put together a quick simulation this evening. We'll see.