Saturday, March 2, 2013


There haven't been many games this season when the Cats have been legitimate underdogs, but today, they are.  At Pauley Pavillion, UCLA should be the favorite to win.  Apparently, Vegas does not agree, and admittedly, they are smarter than I am.  Still, it's hard to feel optimistic after the way the Cats have been playing lately.  We are only batting .500 over our last six.  It makes you long for the early weeks of the season when this team was invincible.

Statistically speaking, we have been better offensively, defensively, and rebounding.  UCLA is much better at taking care of the ball.  They have about half an inch advantage in size, but they are a young team without much depth.  The advantages the Cats have, however, are negated by UCLA's home court advantage, and I'm sure Pauley will be louder than average.

According to the simulation, you can expect around 69 possessions and with a final score in the upper 60's or lower 70's.  UCLA would be expected to win about 47.3% of these games, meaning that it's close to a coin toss.  The most likely score is a 71-70 loss. I hope the Cats can make some shots, and when they don't, that they get back on defense promptly.  We owe these guys some payback.  I hope we get it.

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